10 reasons for the euro rescue fund to fail
Thursday, September 29th, 2011Shares rose in recent days, inspired by the hope that leaders of the European Union (EU) are close to an agreement that will significantly increase the size of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) – a practice rescue fund for examiners debt difficulties eurozone countries – so keep the second year debt crisis in the region to finally be addressed, says CNBC.
Mike Riddle, fund manager of M & G Investments, believes that there are more than one or two reasons for this optimism can be misleading. In fact, he believes that any boulders are 10:
1. There is a risk that at least one of the countries with AAA rating, which will ensure the fund can lose their premium credit evaluation, warned Standard & Poor’s over the weekend.
2. Riddle and fears that “this size and frame EFSF will not be enough to save Spain and Italy.”
3. Even if EFSF was big enough to save Spain and Italy, the chance to lower the ratings of the eurozone countries is increasing.
4. There is legal risk. “Investors in EFSF bonds are not sure what the money will be used, and if subsequently guarantor party refuses to participate, not provided any mechanism to resolve this issue. If for example, Slovakia decided to withdraw, Germany just to ensure a greater amount, “said Riddle.
5. According to analysts, the fact that Spain and Italy will initially be guarantors of the scheme, then it may be that they need the support of EFSF, raises the issue of “effects of mushrooms,” he said.
6. Guarantor countries are too heterogeneous, and some may themselves need support. “Each has different EFSF bond guarantors, as such bonds were first issued in January in support of Ireland. Portugal to this day remains the guarantor of the funds for the rescue of Ireland, even though Portugal itself had to be rescued, “said Riddle.
7. “Then, if necessary restructuring of banks and government debt, and EFSF guarantors had to pay the investors EFSF then guarantors will have to raise money by issuing bonds, which would increase their debt levels, and this brings us back to risk to lower credit ratings of Guarantors, “said Riddle.
8. The restructuring of debt in the eurozone will be “proof that EFSF mechanisms and measures for fiscal discipline have failed. EFSF does not solve the solvency problem. ”
9. EFSF should be in force until 2013, when it should be restarted with the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
10. “Investors will have to be persuaded to part with billions to invest in ever-expanding financial instrument that provides loans to European governments and banks, just at a time when the market has decided that these banks and governments are insolvent” warns Riddle.
